Research/Terra/ 133682
Task evidence / geographic-heatmap

Create a heatmap of earthquake occurrences in regions with high population growth

FailComputational taskUnpublished draft
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The question

133682
Create a heatmap of earthquake occurrences in regions with high population growth.
Exact submitted task and declared adaptations
Create a heatmap of earthquake occurrences in regions with high population growth.

Task conventions: Use all supplied countries. High growth means (2023 population minus 2010 population) divided by 2010 population at least 0.23, using WDI SP.POP.TOTL. Use magnitude weights from the frozen event file, not inferred earthquake energy. Use original point records strictly within the original selected country polygons; no clipped polygons, location guesses or current data. Join country ISO_A3 to the supplied indicator table's Country Code exactly. Unknown country indicators, nonpositive ratio denominators, missing geometry and missing/nonfinite weights are unknown, not zero. Known zero weights remain valid. Exclude valid points outside the specified geography. Include only eligible points with a finite nonnegative weight in the contributing artifact; report other potentially eligible points as unknown. Use this explicit geographic heatmap convention: grid={"bounds": [-18000000, -7325000, 18000000, 7325000], "crs": "EPSG:6933", "resolutionX": 25000, "resolutionY": 25000}, radius 150000 metres = three Gaussian standard deviations. First bin each point into its containing grid cell and sum its weight. Smooth using a normalized separable Gaussian, numerical support four standard deviations, constant-zero exterior; do not renormalize edges. Use both grid resolutions for the two axes; keep original grid alignment. This is a declared metric raster adaptation to the original interactive screen-pixel heatmap, not an equivalent zoom-dependent rendering. Output unit: sum of magnitude per grid cell. Zero cells are valid; this is not density per square kilometre. Do not rescale the values for presentation.



Add the heatmap raster to the map and retain an inspectable selected-point artifact with original geometry and benchmark_row_id. End with one fenced JSON object: {count: contributing point records, unknown_count: records with unknown eligibility or weight, unlocated_count: original points lacking valid geometry, coverage_note: string, selection: {collectionId,itemId,assetKey}, density: {collectionId,itemId,assetKey}, map_layer_id: heatmap_layer_id}. Explain the data edition, numerical weights, grid, smoothing and coverage limitations. The source-point artifact is not itself the requested heatmap.

Delivery format: provide the answer object with all fields specified above as final_response on assess_result, alongside the inspected final artifact_refs. This replaces the JSON-code-block formatting requirement above. Blue attaches your explicit selection to the accepted final answer. Finish with a concise ordinary-language answer agreeing with that selected result; do not duplicate the JSON in chat.

Supplied immutable inputs:
[
  {
    "name": "Earthquake points, frozen 30-day snapshot",
    "edition": "Archive labelled Feb142025; observed event timestamps 2025-01-16 through 2025-02-15 UTC",
    "units": {},
    "collectionId": "blue-generated--[resource id withheld]",
    "itemId": "[resource id withheld]",
    "assetKey": "data"
  },
  {
    "name": "World Bank country boundaries",
    "edition": "GeoBenchX harmonized names",
    "units": {},
    "collectionId": "blue-generated--[resource id withheld]",
    "itemId": "[resource id withheld]",
    "assetKey": "data"
  },
  {
    "name": "World Bank SP.POP.TOTL",
    "edition": "Frozen GeoBenchX World Development Indicators; use 2023",
    "units": {
      "2023": "people"
    },
    "collectionId": "blue-generated--[resource id withheld]",
    "itemId": "[resource id withheld]",
    "assetKey": "data"
  }
]

Outcome & verification

Heatmap units do not match the declared weights per cell.

Duration
35m 12s
Recorded Blue tool calls
70
Total tokens
4,748,939
Model cost
Not recorded
Application revision
d50497ea9084f29c91b05406688f87035df98d8a
Release
terra-geobenchx-v1

Recorded final answer

Done — the heatmap is on your map as **Earthquake heatmap**, and the contributing-point artifact is saved for inspection. It uses the frozen USGS 30-day snapshot, frozen WDI 2010/2023 population values, the exact 25 km EPSG:6933 grid, and 150 km Gaussian smoothing. The final result used **95** contributing points, with **0** unknown eligibility-or-weight records and **0** unlocated points. Main limitation: this is only the frozen 2025-01-16 to 2025-02-15 event snapshot, and the fixed-grid constant-zero edge rule can slightly reduce smoothed values near the grid boundary. For the point artifact, the original event benchmark ID is retained in **`benchmark_row_id_target`**. Next: open the heatmap layer or inspect the saved contributing points to review individual events. ### Limitations - The frozen earthquake snapshot is limited to observed event timestamps 2025-01-16 through 2025-02-15 UTC. - The WDI population table is the frozen GeoBenchX SP.POP.TOTL edition using 2010 and 2023 values. - Constant-zero exterior in the requested Gaussian smoothing can lose some weight near the fixed grid edges. - The earthquake source is a frozen 30-day snapshot limited to observed event timestamps 2025-01-16 through 2025-02-15 UTC. - Population eligibility uses the frozen GeoBenchX World Bank SP.POP.TOTL table with 2010 and 2023 values. - Thirty-four country polygons lacked exact WDI matches, but no earthquake points in this snapshot fell within them. - Heatmap values are weighted sums per 25 km cell, not density, and constant-zero exterior can slightly reduce smoothed values near the fixed grid boundary. - The original point benchmark ID is preserved in field `benchmark_row_id_target` because the country join introduced a second benchmark_row_id field. - Thirty-four country polygons have no exact WDI match and remain unknown rather than excluded, but no earthquake points in this frozen snapshot fall within them. - Points outside all supplied country polygons are excluded. Strict `within` does not count boundary-touching points as inside. - Missing, nonfinite, or negative weights would remain unknown rather than zero. None occurred among eligible points in this frozen snapshot. - Constant-zero exterior can lose smoothing mass near the fixed grid edges. Output values are weighted sums per cell, not density per square kilometre. - The final artifact IDs and map layer ID are assigned on execution.

Independent checks

These checks are separate from the agent's own assessment. A successful job or an assertion of success is not enough to pass.

Expected count
95
Reported count
95
Computation verified
No
Answer fulfilled
No
Full grading and rubric record
{
  "expectedCount": 95,
  "actualCount": 95,
  "expectedMetrics": null,
  "actualMetrics": null,
  "computationCorrect": false,
  "answerFulfilled": false,
  "adjudication": null,
  "qualification": null,
  "reasons": [
    "Heatmap units do not match the declared weights per cell."
  ]
}

Recorded investigation findings

The agent's reported hypotheses and assessments, retained as evidence of its process—not independent proof that the answer is correct. Failed calls retain their requested verdict, not an accepted assessment.

run_trial · completed

How does the table-attribute-join name and expose the copied WDI fields after joining population data to the supplied country polygons?

assess_trial · completed · assessment: sufficient

The exact ISO_A3 to Country Code attribute join preserved 251 country polygons with no geometry duplication. The copied WDI fields are exposed with the exact names `Country Code`, `Country Name`, `2010`, and `2023`, which can be used directly in later filters and calculations. The join matched 217 country features and left 34 unmatched country polygons with null joined values, so unknown-country handling is required for points falling in those polygons.

run_trial · completed

Does the full requested method produce a valid global heatmap and the needed point-count buckets using exact country eligibility, strict within-country point selection, and finite nonnegative magnitude weights?

assess_trial · completed · assessment: sufficient

The full requested method executed successfully on the global scope and produced the expected output types. The exact ISO_A3 to Country Code join and growth formula yielded 78 eligible countries and 34 country polygons with unknown indicator matches or denominator validity; none of the frozen earthquake points fell within those 34 unknown-country polygons. Strict `within` selection on the original country polygons kept 95 original earthquake point records in eligible countries, preserved original point geometry, and retained the point benchmark ID in `benchmark_row_id_target` with no duplicate point IDs in the selected result. All 95 eligible points had finite nonnegative `mag` values, so `unknown_weight_points` was 0 and the point-density summary reported `usedPointCount=95`, `unknownWeightCount=0`, `outsideGridCount=0`, and `totalInputWeight=425.3`. The raster output matched the exact requested EPSG:6933 grid bounds [-18000000,-7325000,18000000,7325000], 25 km by 25 km cells, and radius 150000 m with four-sigma kernel truncation and constant-zero exterior.

assess_result · failed · requested assessment: sufficient

Executed outputs are sufficient. Sources used were the Blue-hosted immutable GeoBenchX earthquake benchmark fixture from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (archive labelled Feb142025; observed event timestamps 2025-01-16 through 2025-02-15 UTC; retrieved 2026-10-07), the Blue-hosted GeoBenchX World Bank country boundaries fixture (retrieved 2026-10-07), and the Blue-hosted frozen GeoBenchX World Bank SP.POP.TOTL table using 2010 and 2023 values (retrieved 2026-10-07). The executed heatmap artifact uses the exact fixed EPSG:6933 grid, 25 km cells, and 150 km Gaussian radius, and it used 95 contributing points with total input weight 425.3. The executed contributing-point artifact preserves original point geometries and the original point benchmark IDs in `benchmark_row_id_target`. The executed heatmap layer is on the map.

assess_result · completed · assessment: sufficient

Executed outputs are sufficient. Sources used were the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program via the Blue-hosted immutable GeoBenchX earthquake benchmark fixture, archive labelled Feb142025 with observed event timestamps 2025-01-16 through 2025-02-15 UTC, retrieved 2026-10-07; World Bank Official Boundaries via the Blue-hosted GeoBenchX harmonized country boundaries fixture, retrieved 2026-10-07; and World Bank World Development Indicators SP.POP.TOTL via the Blue-hosted frozen GeoBenchX WDI table using 2010 and 2023 values, retrieved 2026-10-07. The executed heatmap used 95 contributing points with total input weight 425.3 on the exact fixed EPSG:6933 grid, and the executed contributing-point artifact preserves original point geometries and original point benchmark IDs in `benchmark_row_id_target`.

Recorded workflow

  1. 01

    Points within any supplied country

    Recorded vector-spatial-join · skipped

  2. 02

    Contributing points

    Recorded vector-filter · succeeded

  3. 03

    World Bank country boundaries

    Recorded source · succeeded

  4. 04

    Calculate growth ratio

    Recorded vector-field-calculate · succeeded

  5. 05

    Join population to countries

    Recorded table-attribute-join · succeeded

  6. 06

    Earthquake heatmap

    Recorded output · succeeded

  7. 07

    Contributing earthquake points

    Recorded output · succeeded

  8. 08

    Eligible countries

    Recorded vector-filter · succeeded

  9. 09

    Points within eligible countries

    Recorded vector-spatial-join · succeeded

  10. 10

    Normalize magnitude weights

    Recorded vector-field-calculate · succeeded

  11. 11

    Earthquake heatmap

    Recorded point-density · succeeded

  12. 12

    Frozen earthquake points

    Recorded source · succeeded

  13. 13

    World Bank population table

    Recorded source · succeeded

  14. 14

    Unknown eligibility countries

    Recorded vector-filter · skipped

  15. 15

    Points in unknown-eligibility countries

    Recorded vector-spatial-join · skipped

  16. 16

    Unknown or invalid weights

    Recorded vector-filter · skipped

  17. 17

    Points within any supplied country

    Recorded vector-spatial-join · succeeded

  18. 18

    Contributing points

    Recorded vector-filter · succeeded

  19. 19

    World Bank country boundaries

    Recorded source · succeeded

  20. 20

    Calculate growth ratio

    Recorded vector-field-calculate · succeeded

  21. 21

    Join population to countries

    Recorded table-attribute-join · succeeded

  22. 22

    Eligible countries

    Recorded vector-filter · succeeded

  23. 23

    Points within eligible countries

    Recorded vector-spatial-join · succeeded

  24. 24

    Normalize magnitude weights

    Recorded vector-field-calculate · succeeded

  25. 25

    Earthquake heatmap

    Recorded point-density · succeeded

  26. 26

    Frozen earthquake points

    Recorded source · succeeded

  27. 27

    World Bank population table

    Recorded source · succeeded

  28. 28

    Points within any supplied country

    Recorded output · succeeded

  29. 29

    Eligible countries

    Recorded output · succeeded

  30. 30

    Unknown eligibility countries

    Recorded output · succeeded

  31. 31

    Points within eligible countries

    Recorded output · succeeded

  32. 32

    Points in unknown-eligibility countries

    Recorded output · succeeded

  33. 33

    Contributing points

    Recorded output · succeeded

  34. 34

    Unknown or invalid weights

    Recorded output · succeeded

  35. 35

    Earthquake heatmap

    Recorded output · succeeded

  36. 36

    Earthquake heatmap

    Recorded output · succeeded

  37. 37

    Unknown eligibility countries

    Recorded vector-filter · succeeded

  38. 38

    Points in unknown-eligibility countries

    Recorded vector-spatial-join · succeeded

  39. 39

    Unknown or invalid weights

    Recorded vector-filter · succeeded

  40. 40

    World Bank country boundaries

    Recorded source · succeeded

  41. 41

    Join population to countries

    Recorded table-attribute-join · succeeded

  42. 42

    World Bank population table

    Recorded source · succeeded

  43. 43

    Join population to countries

    Recorded output · succeeded

Activity

Recorded actions

Recorded observable actions only, not private reasoning. Raw payloads, geometry, private links and credentials are omitted; full evidence is retained privately. Activity/workflow lists bounded at 500 entries.

  1. Progress update

    I’m checking the available Blue tools and the saved analysis context, then I’ll test the exact heatmap method on the supplied frozen inputs before I save and run the full workflow.

  2. Progress update

    I found the workflow and trial tools. Next I’m pulling the saved brief and the exact source/processor inspection tools so I can verify the frozen schemas and build the heatmap with the user’s required math, not a guessed approximation.

  3. get_analysis

    Recorded tool call · completed

  4. Progress update

    I have the source and brief tools now. I’m inspecting the three frozen inputs and the available processors so I can preserve the exact rules: ISO_A3 ↔ Country Code join, unknown handling, the fixed EPSG:6933 grid, cell-first weighted binning, and the specified Gaussian smoothing.

  5. get_collection

    Recorded tool call · completed

  6. get_collection

    Recorded tool call · completed

  7. get_collection

    Recorded tool call · completed

  8. list_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  9. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  10. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  11. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  12. get_item

    Recorded tool call · completed

  13. get_item

    Recorded tool call · completed

  14. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · failed

  15. get_item

    Recorded tool call · completed

  16. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · failed

  17. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · failed

  18. get_collection

    Recorded tool call · completed

  19. get_collection

    Recorded tool call · completed

  20. get_collection

    Recorded tool call · completed

  21. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · failed

  22. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · failed

  23. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  24. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  25. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  26. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  27. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  28. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  29. Progress update

    I’ve confirmed there is a dedicated `point-density` processor whose documented method matches the requested heatmap math. Now I’m checking a few processor details that matter for correctness: strict point-in-country membership, how invalid weights are handled, and what counts the summaries expose for the final JSON.

  30. search_knowledge

    Recorded tool call · completed

  31. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  32. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  33. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  34. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  35. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  36. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  37. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  38. update_analysis_brief

    Recorded tool call · completed

  39. Progress update

    I found one real uncertainty that can break the workflow if I guess: how the table join names copied WDI columns in the joined country layer. I’m running the smallest safe test first to observe those field names, then I’ll use the observed schema in the full heatmap trial.

  40. run_trial

    Recorded tool call · completed

  41. Progress update

    The first trial answered the join question. The joined country layer kept one feature per country polygon, preserved the WDI field names exactly (`Country Code`, `2010`, `2023`), and showed 34 country polygons with no exact WDI code match. I’m recording that and moving to the full branch test: country eligibility, strict point selection, valid-weight filtering, and the heatmap raster in one trial.

  42. assess_trial

    Recorded tool call · completed

  43. Progress update

    I’m running the full branch now on the real global scope because the requested grid is modest and the event file is fixed. This trial checks the actual output type, not just setup: eligible countries, selected points, unknown buckets, and the final raster.

  44. run_trial

    Recorded tool call · completed

  45. Progress update

    The full trial worked. It found 78 eligible countries, 95 contributing earthquake points, zero unknown-country points, zero unknown-weight points, and a raster on the exact fixed EPSG:6933 grid. I’m doing two last checks before I save the production workflow: previewing the final raster and confirming the point artifact keeps the original event IDs and geometry needed for inspection.

  46. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  47. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  48. get_trial_report

    Recorded tool call · completed

  49. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  50. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  51. get_trial_report

    Recorded tool call · completed

  52. Progress update

    The method is now verified end to end on the full requested extent. Next I’m saving the tested workflow as the production run, then I’ll execute it, add the heatmap to the map, and lock in the final answer object from the inspected outputs.

  53. assess_trial

    Recorded tool call · completed

  54. update_analysis_brief

    Recorded tool call · completed

  55. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  56. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  57. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  58. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  59. Progress update

    I’ve verified the method, counts, and output shape. Now I’m saving the exact tested computation as the production workflow with the fixed join keys, threshold, strict `within` rule, grid, and Gaussian settings locked in.

  60. propose_workflow

    Recorded tool call · failed

  61. Progress update

    The first validation caught a bookkeeping issue, not a method problem: I referenced some diagnostic trial branches that don’t feed the final deliverables. I’m correcting the contract to point only at the production branches that actually produce the selection and heatmap.

  62. propose_workflow

    Recorded tool call · failed

  63. Progress update

    One requirement still needed an exact binding because the selected-point branch feeds both the point artifact and the heatmap. I’m pinning that requirement to the downstream point-selection source path Blue asked for.

  64. propose_workflow

    Recorded tool call · completed

  65. revise_workflow

    Recorded tool call · completed

  66. Progress update

    The saved draft is valid, but Blue flagged one remaining contract binding for the weight rule. I’m fixing that by pointing the rule at the downstream source input that actually carries the cleaned weight field into the final contributing-point branch.

  67. Progress update

    The production workflow is now ready. I’m launching the exact saved run from the verified trial so the final artifacts get their permanent IDs and I can bind the heatmap to the map.

  68. execute_workflow

    Recorded tool call · completed

  69. inspect_workflow_results

    Recorded tool call · completed

  70. Progress update

    The production run finished. I’m inspecting the final outputs now so I can bind the real heatmap layer and return the final artifact IDs, counts, and coverage note from the executed workflow rather than from the trial.

  71. inspect_workflow_results

    Recorded tool call · completed

  72. Progress update

    I already have the executed workflow IDs. I’m finishing the final checks now: the permanent heatmap artifact, the permanent point-selection artifact, and the actual map layer binding.

  73. inspect_workflow_results

    Recorded tool call · completed

  74. Progress update

    I’ve got the permanent point artifact. I’m pulling the permanent raster and summary receipts next, then I’ll add the raster layer and record the final answer object from those exact execution receipts.

  75. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  76. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  77. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  78. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  79. Progress update

    I’m reusing the finished inspection jobs so I can bind the executed raster, not the trial raster. After that I’ll add the executed heatmap item to the map and verify the layer ID.

  80. inspect_workflow_results

    Recorded tool call · completed

  81. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  82. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  83. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  84. Progress update

    The executed deliverable already has a verified map receipt with layer ID. I’m doing one quick layer list check, then I’ll lock the final answer object against the inspected heatmap and point artifact.

  85. list_map_layers

    Recorded tool call · completed

  86. assess_result

    Recorded tool call · failed

  87. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  88. Progress update

    Blue wants a spatial preview of the final point-selection artifact before I finalize. I’m adding that last inspection now, then I’ll immediately record the accepted result.

  89. Progress update

    I’ve already finished the preview job Blue requested for the final point-selection artifact. I’m fetching that immutable receipt now and then I’ll record the accepted result object.

  90. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  91. Progress update

    I’ve finished the last required preview. Now I’m locking the final result to the executed heatmap layer and the executed contributing-point artifact.

  92. assess_result

    Recorded tool call · completed

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